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Traiskirchen vs Team Wiener Linien — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Traiskirchen
Traiskirchen
CANC
17:30
Team Wiener Linien
Team Wiener Linien
6/28/2021Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 26Sport- und Freizeitzentrum Traiskirchen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Traiskirchen43%
×Draw23%
Team Wiener Linien33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Traiskirchen
1.74
Team Wiener Linien
1.50

Traiskirchen creates 16% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 28 away

creates per match

Traiskirchen
1.86
Team Wiener Linien
1.43

allows per match

Traiskirchen
1.57
Team Wiener Linien
1.61

finishing

Traiskirchen+0.00on par
Team Wiener Linien+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Traiskirchen ↓

Team Wiener Linien →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Traiskirchen or draw
67%
Traiskirchen or Team Wiener Linien
77%
Draw or Team Wiener Linien
57%

Winning margin

Traiskirchen wins by 2+
23%
Team Wiener Linien wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Traiskirchen 1+ goals
82%
Traiskirchen 2+ goals
52%
Traiskirchen 3+ goals
25%
Team Wiener Linien 1+ goals
78%
Team Wiener Linien 2+ goals
44%
Team Wiener Linien 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Traiskirchen (draw refunded)
57%
Team Wiener Linien (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Traiskirchen at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.57 · 104 matches

Team Wiener Linien away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Traiskirchen attack 1.86 + Team Wiener Linien defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.74

Team Wiener Linien attack 1.43 + Traiskirchen defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Traiskirchen scores more
43%
level
23%
Team Wiener Linien scores more
33%

Traiskirchen at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Traiskirchen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Traiskirchen face Team Wiener Linien (Regionalliga - Ost)

Regionalliga - Ost returns with Traiskirchen hosting Team Wiener Linien. Match starts June 28, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Traiskirchen host Team Wiener Linien at Sport- und Freizeitzentrum Traiskirchen.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.