Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Traiskirchen vs SKN ST. Polten — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Traiskirchen
Traiskirchen
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
SKN ST. Polten
SKN ST. Polten
1/16/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Traiskirchen40%
×Draw21%
SKN ST. Polten39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Traiskirchen
2.06
SKN ST. Polten
2.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Traiskirchen
2.13
SKN ST. Polten
2.33

allows per match

Traiskirchen
1.75
SKN ST. Polten
2.00

finishing

Traiskirchen+0.00on par
SKN ST. Polten+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Traiskirchen ↓

SKN ST. Polten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Traiskirchen or draw
61%
Traiskirchen or SKN ST. Polten
79%
Draw or SKN ST. Polten
60%

Winning margin

Traiskirchen wins by 2+
22%
SKN ST. Polten wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Traiskirchen 1+ goals
87%
Traiskirchen 2+ goals
61%
Traiskirchen 3+ goals
34%
SKN ST. Polten 1+ goals
87%
SKN ST. Polten 2+ goals
60%
SKN ST. Polten 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Traiskirchen (draw refunded)
50%
SKN ST. Polten (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Traiskirchen at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

SKN ST. Polten away — creates 2.33, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Traiskirchen attack 2.13 + SKN ST. Polten defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.06

SKN ST. Polten attack 2.33 + Traiskirchen defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Traiskirchen scores more
40%
level
21%
SKN ST. Polten scores more
39%

Traiskirchen at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Traiskirchen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Traiskirchen vs SKN ST. Polten

SKN ST. Polten beat Traiskirchen 4-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 16, 2026.