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Traiskirchen vs Krems — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Traiskirchen
Traiskirchen
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Krems
Krems
7/29/2022Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 1Sport- und Freizeitzentrum Traiskirchen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Traiskirchen45%
×Draw23%
Krems31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Traiskirchen
1.76
Krems
1.43

Traiskirchen creates 23% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 32 away

creates per match

Traiskirchen
1.86
Krems
1.28

allows per match

Traiskirchen
1.57
Krems
1.66

finishing

Traiskirchen+0.00on par
Krems+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Traiskirchen ↓

Krems →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Traiskirchen or draw
69%
Traiskirchen or Krems
77%
Draw or Krems
55%

Winning margin

Traiskirchen wins by 2+
24%
Krems wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Traiskirchen 1+ goals
83%
Traiskirchen 2+ goals
52%
Traiskirchen 3+ goals
26%
Krems 1+ goals
76%
Krems 2+ goals
42%
Krems 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Traiskirchen (draw refunded)
59%
Krems (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Traiskirchen at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.57 · 104 matches

Krems away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.66 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Traiskirchen attack 1.86 + Krems defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.76

Krems attack 1.28 + Traiskirchen defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Traiskirchen scores more
45%
level
23%
Krems scores more
31%

Traiskirchen at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Traiskirchen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Ost: Traiskirchen 1–2 Krems

Krems beat Traiskirchen 2-1 in Regionalliga - Ost on July 29, 2022.

The match was played at Sport- und Freizeitzentrum Traiskirchen in Traiskirchen.