Trafford 0–3 United of Manchester: Result & Stats

Trafford

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

United of Manchester

7/20/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Trafford10%

×Draw14%

United of Manchester76%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TraffordExpected goals in this matchUnited of Manchester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

2.85

Trafford

0.93

United of Manchester

2.85

United of Manchester creates 206% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

1.25

creates per match

3.20

2.50

allows per match

0.60

creates per match

Trafford

1.25

United of Manchester

3.20

allows per match

Trafford

2.50

United of Manchester

0.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trafford+0.00on par

United of Manchester+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trafford ↓

United of Manchester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–17%

0–210%

0–39%

0–46%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–24%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Trafford or draw

24%

Trafford or United of Manchester

86%

Draw or United of Manchester

90%

Winning margin

Trafford wins by 2+

3%

United of Manchester wins by 2+

56%

Team goals

Trafford 1+ goals

61%

Trafford 2+ goals

24%

Trafford 3+ goals

7%

United of Manchester 1+ goals

94%

United of Manchester 2+ goals

77%

United of Manchester 3+ goals

53%

Draw no bet

Trafford (draw refunded)

11%

United of Manchester (draw refunded)

89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trafford at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

United of Manchester away — creates 3.20, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trafford attack 1.25 + United of Manchester defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.93

United of Manchester attack 3.20 + Trafford defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Trafford scores more

10%

level

14%

United of Manchester scores more

76%

United of Manchester at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "United of Manchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff