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Tractor Sazi vs Shams Azar Qazvin — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Tractor Sazi
Tractor Sazi
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Shams Azar Qazvin
Shams Azar Qazvin
12/21/2024Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 13Yadegar-e-Imam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Tractor Sazi48%
×Draw29%
Shams Azar Qazvin22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tractor Sazi
1.26
Shams Azar Qazvin
0.76

Tractor Sazi creates 66% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 41 away

creates per match

Tractor Sazi
1.45
Shams Azar Qazvin
0.78

allows per match

Tractor Sazi
0.74
Shams Azar Qazvin
1.07

finishing

Tractor Sazi+0.00on par
Shams Azar Qazvin+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tractor Sazi ↓

Shams Azar Qazvin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Tractor Sazi or draw
78%
Tractor Sazi or Shams Azar Qazvin
71%
Draw or Shams Azar Qazvin
52%

Winning margin

Tractor Sazi wins by 2+
22%
Shams Azar Qazvin wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tractor Sazi 1+ goals
72%
Tractor Sazi 2+ goals
36%
Tractor Sazi 3+ goals
13%
Shams Azar Qazvin 1+ goals
53%
Shams Azar Qazvin 2+ goals
18%
Shams Azar Qazvin 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Tractor Sazi (draw refunded)
68%
Shams Azar Qazvin (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tractor Sazi at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.74 · 115 matches

Shams Azar Qazvin away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.07 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tractor Sazi attack 1.45 + Shams Azar Qazvin defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.26

Shams Azar Qazvin attack 0.78 + Tractor Sazi defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tractor Sazi scores more
48%
level
29%
Shams Azar Qazvin scores more
22%

Tractor Sazi at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tractor Sazi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tractor Sazi vs Shams Azar Qazvin

Shams Azar Qazvin beat Tractor Sazi 1-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on December 21, 2024.

The match was played at Yadegar-e-Imam Stadium in Tabriz.