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Tractor Sazi vs Sepidrood Rasht — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Tractor Sazi
Tractor Sazi
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sepidrood Rasht
Sepidrood Rasht
10/26/2018Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 10Yadegar-e-Emam Stadium (Tabrīz (Tabriz))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tractor Sazi56%
×Draw26%
Sepidrood Rasht18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tractor Sazi
1.49
Sepidrood Rasht
0.71

Tractor Sazi creates 110% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 15 away

creates per match

Tractor Sazi
1.45
Sepidrood Rasht
0.67

allows per match

Tractor Sazi
0.74
Sepidrood Rasht
1.53

finishing

Tractor Sazi+0.00on par
Sepidrood Rasht+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tractor Sazi ↓

Sepidrood Rasht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Tractor Sazi or draw
82%
Tractor Sazi or Sepidrood Rasht
74%
Draw or Sepidrood Rasht
44%

Winning margin

Tractor Sazi wins by 2+
29%
Sepidrood Rasht wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Tractor Sazi 1+ goals
77%
Tractor Sazi 2+ goals
44%
Tractor Sazi 3+ goals
19%
Sepidrood Rasht 1+ goals
51%
Sepidrood Rasht 2+ goals
16%
Sepidrood Rasht 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Tractor Sazi (draw refunded)
76%
Sepidrood Rasht (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tractor Sazi at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.74 · 115 matches

Sepidrood Rasht away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tractor Sazi attack 1.45 + Sepidrood Rasht defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.49

Sepidrood Rasht attack 0.67 + Tractor Sazi defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Tractor Sazi scores more
56%
level
26%
Sepidrood Rasht scores more
18%

Tractor Sazi at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Tractor Sazi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Tractor Sazi 2–1 Sepidrood Rasht

Tractor Sazi beat Sepidrood Rasht 2-1 in Persian Gulf Pro League on October 26, 2018.

The match was played at Yadegar-e-Emam Stadium (Tabrīz (Tabriz)).