Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tractor Sazi vs Ravshan — AFC Cup 2018

Tractor Sazi
Tractor Sazi
FT
7 – 0
HT: 5 – 0
Ravshan
Ravshan
11/6/2024AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 4Thani Bin Jassim Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Tractor Sazi68%
×Draw17%
Ravshan14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tractor Sazi
2.56
Ravshan
1.10

Tractor Sazi creates 133% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Tractor Sazi
3.25
Ravshan
0.71

allows per match

Tractor Sazi
1.50
Ravshan
1.86

finishing

Tractor Sazi+0.00on par
Ravshan+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tractor Sazi ↓

Ravshan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Tractor Sazi or draw
86%
Tractor Sazi or Ravshan
83%
Draw or Ravshan
32%

Winning margin

Tractor Sazi wins by 2+
47%
Ravshan wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Tractor Sazi 1+ goals
92%
Tractor Sazi 2+ goals
72%
Tractor Sazi 3+ goals
46%
Ravshan 1+ goals
67%
Ravshan 2+ goals
30%
Ravshan 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tractor Sazi (draw refunded)
83%
Ravshan (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tractor Sazi at home — creates 3.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Ravshan away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tractor Sazi attack 3.25 + Ravshan defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.56

Ravshan attack 0.71 + Tractor Sazi defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Tractor Sazi scores more
68%
level
17%
Ravshan scores more
14%

Tractor Sazi at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Tractor Sazi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tractor Sazi vs Ravshan

Tractor Sazi beat Ravshan 7-0 in AFC Cup on November 6, 2024.

The match was played at Thani Bin Jassim Stadium in Doha.