Tractor Sazi 0–3 Persepolis FC: Result & Stats

Tractor Sazi

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Persepolis FC

5/19/2022

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 28Yadegar-e-Emam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Tractor Sazi33%

×Draw30%

Persepolis FC37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tractor SaziExpected goals in this matchPersepolis FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.10

Tractor Sazi

1.02

Persepolis FC

1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 100 home / 101 away

1.38

creates per match

1.46

0.75

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Tractor Sazi

1.38

Persepolis FC

1.46

allows per match

Tractor Sazi

0.75

Persepolis FC

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tractor Sazi+0.00on par

Persepolis FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tractor Sazi ↓

Persepolis FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Tractor Sazi or draw

63%

Tractor Sazi or Persepolis FC

70%

Draw or Persepolis FC

67%

Winning margin

Tractor Sazi wins by 2+

13%

Persepolis FC wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Tractor Sazi 1+ goals

64%

Tractor Sazi 2+ goals

27%

Tractor Sazi 3+ goals

8%

Persepolis FC 1+ goals

67%

Persepolis FC 2+ goals

30%

Persepolis FC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Tractor Sazi (draw refunded)

47%

Persepolis FC (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tractor Sazi at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.75 · 100 matches

Persepolis FC away — creates 1.46, concedes 0.67 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tractor Sazi attack 1.38 + Persepolis FC defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.02

Persepolis FC attack 1.46 + Tractor Sazi defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Tractor Sazi scores more

33%

level

30%

Persepolis FC scores more

37%

Persepolis FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Persepolis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

67'

M. Ghaderi← M. Aghajanpour

Tractor

Persepolis

81

27

5

11

77

9

10

6

70

2

40

1

23

5

17

77

66

8

3

▼

33

7

10

Manager: E. Sağlam

67'▲M. Ghaderi←▼M. Aghajanpour

Tractor Sazi substitutes

99Ghaderi

Manager: Y. Golmohammadi