Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Persepolis FC vs Tractor Sazi — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Persepolis FC
Persepolis FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tractor Sazi
Tractor Sazi
2/21/2024Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 17Azadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

Persepolis FC45%
×Draw30%
Tractor Sazi26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Persepolis FC
1.20
Tractor Sazi
0.83

Persepolis FC creates 45% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 116 away

creates per match

Persepolis FC
1.44
Tractor Sazi
1.16

allows per match

Persepolis FC
0.51
Tractor Sazi
0.96

finishing

Persepolis FC+0.00on par
Tractor Sazi+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Persepolis FC ↓

Tractor Sazi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Persepolis FC or draw
74%
Persepolis FC or Tractor Sazi
70%
Draw or Tractor Sazi
55%

Winning margin

Persepolis FC wins by 2+
20%
Tractor Sazi wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Persepolis FC 1+ goals
70%
Persepolis FC 2+ goals
34%
Persepolis FC 3+ goals
12%
Tractor Sazi 1+ goals
56%
Tractor Sazi 2+ goals
20%
Tractor Sazi 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Persepolis FC (draw refunded)
64%
Tractor Sazi (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Persepolis FC at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.51 · 115 matches

Tractor Sazi away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.96 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Persepolis FC attack 1.44 + Tractor Sazi defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.20

Tractor Sazi attack 1.16 + Persepolis FC defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Persepolis FC scores more
45%
level
30%
Tractor Sazi scores more
26%

Persepolis FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Persepolis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Persepolis FC vs Tractor Sazi

Persepolis FC beat Tractor Sazi 2-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on February 21, 2024.

The match was played at Azadi Stadium in Teheran.