Tractor Sazi 1–0 Nassaji Mazandaran: Result & Stats

Tractor Sazi

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Nassaji Mazandaran

5/12/2023

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 29Yadegar-e-Emam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Tractor Sazi49%

×Draw29%

Nassaji Mazandaran23%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tractor SaziExpected goals in this matchNassaji Mazandaran

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.78

Tractor Sazi

1.29

Nassaji Mazandaran

0.78

Tractor Sazi creates 65% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 88 away

1.39

creates per match

0.82

0.75

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Tractor Sazi

1.39

Nassaji Mazandaran

0.82

allows per match

Tractor Sazi

0.75

Nassaji Mazandaran

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tractor Sazi+0.00on par

Nassaji Mazandaran+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tractor Sazi ↓

Nassaji Mazandaran →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Tractor Sazi or draw

77%

Tractor Sazi or Nassaji Mazandaran

71%

Draw or Nassaji Mazandaran

51%

Winning margin

Tractor Sazi wins by 2+

23%

Nassaji Mazandaran wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Tractor Sazi 1+ goals

72%

Tractor Sazi 2+ goals

37%

Tractor Sazi 3+ goals

14%

Nassaji Mazandaran 1+ goals

54%

Nassaji Mazandaran 2+ goals

18%

Nassaji Mazandaran 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Tractor Sazi (draw refunded)

68%

Nassaji Mazandaran (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tractor Sazi at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.75 · 102 matches

Nassaji Mazandaran away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.20 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tractor Sazi attack 1.39 + Nassaji Mazandaran defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.29

Nassaji Mazandaran attack 0.82 + Tractor Sazi defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tractor Sazi scores more

49%

level

29%

Nassaji Mazandaran scores more

23%

Tractor Sazi at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tractor Sazi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff