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Tractor Sazi vs Naft Masjed Soleyman — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Tractor Sazi
Tractor Sazi
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Naft Masjed Soleyman
Naft Masjed Soleyman
12/15/2021Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 10Bonyan Diesel Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Tractor Sazi55%
×Draw28%
Naft Masjed Soleyman16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tractor Sazi
1.35
Naft Masjed Soleyman
0.59

Tractor Sazi creates 129% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 74 away

creates per match

Tractor Sazi
1.45
Naft Masjed Soleyman
0.45

allows per match

Tractor Sazi
0.74
Naft Masjed Soleyman
1.26

finishing

Tractor Sazi+0.00on par
Naft Masjed Soleyman+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tractor Sazi ↓

Naft Masjed Soleyman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–18%
0–23%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Tractor Sazi or draw
84%
Tractor Sazi or Naft Masjed Soleyman
72%
Draw or Naft Masjed Soleyman
45%

Winning margin

Tractor Sazi wins by 2+
27%
Naft Masjed Soleyman wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Tractor Sazi 1+ goals
74%
Tractor Sazi 2+ goals
39%
Tractor Sazi 3+ goals
15%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 1+ goals
45%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 2+ goals
12%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Tractor Sazi (draw refunded)
77%
Naft Masjed Soleyman (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tractor Sazi at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.74 · 115 matches

Naft Masjed Soleyman away — creates 0.45, concedes 1.26 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tractor Sazi attack 1.45 + Naft Masjed Soleyman defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.35

Naft Masjed Soleyman attack 0.45 + Tractor Sazi defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Tractor Sazi scores more
55%
level
28%
Naft Masjed Soleyman scores more
16%

Tractor Sazi at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Tractor Sazi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Tractor Sazi 2–0 Naft Masjed Soleyman

Tractor Sazi beat Naft Masjed Soleyman 2-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on December 15, 2021.

The match was played at Bonyan Diesel Stadium in Tabriz.