Tractor Sazi 2–0 Machine Sazi FC: Result & Stats

Tractor Sazi

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Machine Sazi FC

5/29/2021

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 21Bonyan Diesel Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Tractor Sazi55%

×Draw27%

Machine Sazi FC18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tractor SaziExpected goals in this matchMachine Sazi FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.69

Tractor Sazi

1.42

Machine Sazi FC

0.69

Tractor Sazi creates 106% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 45 away

1.45

creates per match

0.64

0.74

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Tractor Sazi

1.45

Machine Sazi FC

0.64

allows per match

Tractor Sazi

0.74

Machine Sazi FC

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tractor Sazi+0.00on par

Machine Sazi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tractor Sazi ↓

Machine Sazi FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Tractor Sazi or draw

82%

Tractor Sazi or Machine Sazi FC

73%

Draw or Machine Sazi FC

45%

Winning margin

Tractor Sazi wins by 2+

27%

Machine Sazi FC wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Tractor Sazi 1+ goals

76%

Tractor Sazi 2+ goals

41%

Tractor Sazi 3+ goals

17%

Machine Sazi FC 1+ goals

50%

Machine Sazi FC 2+ goals

15%

Machine Sazi FC 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Tractor Sazi (draw refunded)

75%

Machine Sazi FC (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tractor Sazi at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.74 · 115 matches

Machine Sazi FC away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.40 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tractor Sazi attack 1.45 + Machine Sazi FC defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.42

Machine Sazi FC attack 0.64 + Tractor Sazi defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Tractor Sazi scores more

55%

level

27%

Machine Sazi FC scores more

18%

Tractor Sazi at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Tractor Sazi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff