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Tractor Sazi vs Foolad FC — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Tractor Sazi
Tractor Sazi
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Foolad FC
Foolad FC
10/6/2024Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 7Yadegar-e-Imam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

Tractor Sazi47%
×Draw29%
Foolad FC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tractor Sazi
1.26
Foolad FC
0.79

Tractor Sazi creates 59% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 116 away

creates per match

Tractor Sazi
1.45
Foolad FC
0.84

allows per match

Tractor Sazi
0.74
Foolad FC
1.07

finishing

Tractor Sazi+0.00on par
Foolad FC+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tractor Sazi ↓

Foolad FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Tractor Sazi or draw
77%
Tractor Sazi or Foolad FC
71%
Draw or Foolad FC
53%

Winning margin

Tractor Sazi wins by 2+
22%
Foolad FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tractor Sazi 1+ goals
72%
Tractor Sazi 2+ goals
36%
Tractor Sazi 3+ goals
13%
Foolad FC 1+ goals
55%
Foolad FC 2+ goals
19%
Foolad FC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tractor Sazi (draw refunded)
67%
Foolad FC (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tractor Sazi at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.74 · 115 matches

Foolad FC away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.07 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tractor Sazi attack 1.45 + Foolad FC defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.26

Foolad FC attack 0.84 + Tractor Sazi defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tractor Sazi scores more
47%
level
29%
Foolad FC scores more
23%

Tractor Sazi at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tractor Sazi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Tractor Sazi 1–2 Foolad FC

Foolad FC beat Tractor Sazi 2-1 in Persian Gulf Pro League on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Yadegar-e-Imam Stadium in Tabriz.