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Tractor Sazi vs Fajr Sepasi — Persian Gulf Pro League 2025

Tractor Sazi
Tractor Sazi
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Fajr Sepasi
Fajr Sepasi
S. Nariman 39'
M. Abbaszadeh 24'
O. Mansouri 9'
5/25/2022Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 29Yadegar-e-Emam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Tractor Sazi51%
×Draw29%
Fajr Sepasi20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tractor Sazi
1.28
Fajr Sepasi
0.69

Tractor Sazi creates 86% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 27 away

creates per match

Tractor Sazi
1.38
Fajr Sepasi
0.63

allows per match

Tractor Sazi
0.75
Fajr Sepasi
1.19

finishing

Tractor Sazi+0.00on par
Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tractor Sazi ↓

Fajr Sepasi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Tractor Sazi or draw
80%
Tractor Sazi or Fajr Sepasi
71%
Draw or Fajr Sepasi
49%

Winning margin

Tractor Sazi wins by 2+
24%
Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Tractor Sazi 1+ goals
72%
Tractor Sazi 2+ goals
37%
Tractor Sazi 3+ goals
14%
Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals
50%
Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals
15%
Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Tractor Sazi (draw refunded)
72%
Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tractor Sazi at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.75 · 100 matches

Fajr Sepasi away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tractor Sazi attack 1.38 + Fajr Sepasi defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.28

Fajr Sepasi attack 0.63 + Tractor Sazi defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Tractor Sazi scores more
51%
level
29%
Fajr Sepasi scores more
20%

Tractor Sazi at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Tractor Sazi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
O. Mansouri
24'
M. Abbaszadeh
39'
S. Nariman

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Tractor Sazi 2–1 Fajr Sepasi

Tractor Sazi beat Fajr Sepasi 2-1 in Persian Gulf Pro League on May 25, 2022.

Goals: O. Mansouri (9'), M. Abbaszadeh (24'), S. Nariman (39').

The match was played at Yadegar-e-Emam Stadium in Tabriz.