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Tractor Sazi vs Esteghlal FC — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Tractor Sazi
Tractor Sazi
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Esteghlal FC
Esteghlal FC
5/1/2024Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 25Yadegar-e-Emam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

Tractor Sazi37%
×Draw30%
Esteghlal FC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tractor Sazi
1.10
Esteghlal FC
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 115 home / 116 away

creates per match

Tractor Sazi
1.45
Esteghlal FC
1.30

allows per match

Tractor Sazi
0.74
Esteghlal FC
0.75

finishing

Tractor Sazi+0.00on par
Esteghlal FC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tractor Sazi ↓

Esteghlal FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Tractor Sazi or draw
67%
Tractor Sazi or Esteghlal FC
70%
Draw or Esteghlal FC
63%

Winning margin

Tractor Sazi wins by 2+
15%
Esteghlal FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tractor Sazi 1+ goals
67%
Tractor Sazi 2+ goals
30%
Tractor Sazi 3+ goals
10%
Esteghlal FC 1+ goals
64%
Esteghlal FC 2+ goals
27%
Esteghlal FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tractor Sazi (draw refunded)
53%
Esteghlal FC (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tractor Sazi at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.74 · 115 matches

Esteghlal FC away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.75 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tractor Sazi attack 1.45 + Esteghlal FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.10

Esteghlal FC attack 1.30 + Tractor Sazi defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Tractor Sazi scores more
37%
level
30%
Esteghlal FC scores more
33%

Tractor Sazi at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tractor Sazi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tractor Sazi vs Esteghlal FC

Tractor Sazi and Esteghlal FC drew 0-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on May 1, 2024.

The match was played at Yadegar-e-Emam Stadium in Tabriz.