Tractor Sazi 0–0 Al Taawon: Result & Stats

Tractor Sazi

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Al Taawon

3/4/2025

AFC Cup · Quarter-finalsYadegar-e-Imam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Tractor Sazi50%

×Draw21%

Al Taawon29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tractor SaziExpected goals in this matchAl Taawon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.58

Tractor Sazi

2.13

Al Taawon

1.58

Tractor Sazi creates 35% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

3.25

creates per match

1.67

1.50

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Tractor Sazi

3.25

Al Taawon

1.67

allows per match

Tractor Sazi

1.50

Al Taawon

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tractor Sazi+0.00on par

Al Taawon+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tractor Sazi ↓

Al Taawon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Tractor Sazi or draw

71%

Tractor Sazi or Al Taawon

79%

Draw or Al Taawon

50%

Winning margin

Tractor Sazi wins by 2+

30%

Al Taawon wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Tractor Sazi 1+ goals

88%

Tractor Sazi 2+ goals

63%

Tractor Sazi 3+ goals

35%

Al Taawon 1+ goals

79%

Al Taawon 2+ goals

47%

Al Taawon 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Tractor Sazi (draw refunded)

64%

Al Taawon (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tractor Sazi at home — creates 3.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Al Taawon away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tractor Sazi attack 3.25 + Al Taawon defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

Al Taawon attack 1.67 + Tractor Sazi defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tractor Sazi scores more

50%

level

21%

Al Taawon scores more

29%

Tractor Sazi at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tractor Sazi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff