Tractor Sazi 0–2 Al Sadd: Result & Stats

Tractor Sazi

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Al Sadd

Roberto Firmino 89'

R. Mujica 61'

2/10/2026

AFC Champions League · League Phase West - 7Yadegar-e-Emam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Tractor Sazi33%

×Draw28%

Al Sadd39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tractor SaziExpected goals in this matchAl Sadd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.21

Tractor Sazi

1.10

Al Sadd

1.21

Al Sadd creates 10% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 34 away

0.58

creates per match

1.26

1.17

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Tractor Sazi

0.58

Al Sadd

1.26

allows per match

Tractor Sazi

1.17

Al Sadd

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tractor Sazi+0.00on par

Al Sadd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tractor Sazi ↓

Al Sadd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Tractor Sazi or draw

61%

Tractor Sazi or Al Sadd

72%

Draw or Al Sadd

67%

Winning margin

Tractor Sazi wins by 2+

13%

Al Sadd wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Tractor Sazi 1+ goals

67%

Tractor Sazi 2+ goals

30%

Tractor Sazi 3+ goals

10%

Al Sadd 1+ goals

70%

Al Sadd 2+ goals

34%

Al Sadd 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Tractor Sazi (draw refunded)

46%

Al Sadd (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tractor Sazi at home — creates 0.58, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Al Sadd away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.62 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tractor Sazi attack 0.58 + Al Sadd defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.10

Al Sadd attack 1.26 + Tractor Sazi defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tractor Sazi scores more

33%

level

28%

Al Sadd scores more

39%

Al Sadd at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al Sadd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

A. Afif

Al Sadd · M

9.0

Match Events

24'

R. Lushkja← M. Torabi

28'

H. Ali← Giovani

57'

Regi Lushkja

61'

R. Mujica↳ A. Afif

64'

Mohamed Camara

71'

T. Strkalj← M. Hashemnejad

72'

M. Shiri← O. Khamrobekov

78'

H. Al Haydos← R. Mujica

78'

A. Soria← M. Camara

84'

M. Hosseini← T. Halilovic

87'

Danial Esmaeilifar

89'

Roberto Firmino↳ Claudinho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TractorAl

Overview

39%Possession61%

9Total Shots23

0.50Expected Goals (xG)3.03

5Corners6

13Fouls13

Shots

9Total Shots23

4On Target7

4Off Target10

1Blocked6

4Inside Box17

5Outside Box6

Passing

39%Possession61%

367Total Passes577

303Accurate Passes521

83%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

0.48Goals Prevented0.48

Discipline

13Fouls13

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0