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Tractor Sazi vs Al-Ahli Jeddah — AFC Champions League 2018

Tractor Sazi
Tractor Sazi
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Ahli Jeddah
2/12/2018AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 1Seeb Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Tractor Sazi26%
×Draw27%
Al-Ahli Jeddah47%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tractor Sazi
0.94
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1.38

Al-Ahli Jeddah creates 47% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 31 away

creates per match

Tractor Sazi
0.58
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1.58

allows per match

Tractor Sazi
1.17
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1.29

finishing

Tractor Sazi+0.00on par
Al-Ahli Jeddah+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tractor Sazi ↓

Al-Ahli Jeddah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tractor Sazi or draw
53%
Tractor Sazi or Al-Ahli Jeddah
73%
Draw or Al-Ahli Jeddah
74%

Winning margin

Tractor Sazi wins by 2+
9%
Al-Ahli Jeddah wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Tractor Sazi 1+ goals
61%
Tractor Sazi 2+ goals
24%
Tractor Sazi 3+ goals
7%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 1+ goals
75%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 2+ goals
40%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Tractor Sazi (draw refunded)
35%
Al-Ahli Jeddah (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tractor Sazi at home — creates 0.58, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Al-Ahli Jeddah away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.29 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tractor Sazi attack 0.58 + Al-Ahli Jeddah defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.94

Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.58 + Tractor Sazi defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tractor Sazi scores more
26%
level
27%
Al-Ahli Jeddah scores more
47%

Al-Ahli Jeddah at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Al-Ahli Jeddah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tractor Sazi vs Al-Ahli Jeddah

Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Tractor Sazi 1-0 in AFC Champions League on February 12, 2018.

The match was played at Seeb Stadium in Seeb.