Trabzonspor 1–2 Ümraniyespor: Result & Stats

Trabzonspor

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Ümraniyespor

Y. Yazıcı 83'

U. Nayir 65'

J. Sekidika 51'

3/4/2023

League #203 · Round 24Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Trabzonspor50%

×Draw22%

Ümraniyespor28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TrabzonsporExpected goals in this matchÜmraniyespor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.40

Trabzonspor

1.92

Ümraniyespor

1.40

Trabzonspor creates 37% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 3 away

2.17

creates per match

1.67

1.13

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Trabzonspor

2.17

Ümraniyespor

1.67

allows per match

Trabzonspor

1.13

Ümraniyespor

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trabzonspor+0.00on par

Ümraniyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trabzonspor ↓

Ümraniyespor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Trabzonspor or draw

72%

Trabzonspor or Ümraniyespor

78%

Draw or Ümraniyespor

50%

Winning margin

Trabzonspor wins by 2+

28%

Ümraniyespor wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Trabzonspor 1+ goals

85%

Trabzonspor 2+ goals

57%

Trabzonspor 3+ goals

30%

Ümraniyespor 1+ goals

75%

Ümraniyespor 2+ goals

41%

Ümraniyespor 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Trabzonspor (draw refunded)

64%

Ümraniyespor (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trabzonspor at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.13 · 23 matches

Ümraniyespor away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trabzonspor attack 2.17 + Ümraniyespor defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.92

Ümraniyespor attack 1.67 + Trabzonspor defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Trabzonspor scores more

50%

level

22%

Ümraniyespor scores more

28%

Trabzonspor at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Trabzonspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

O. Gürbulak

Ümraniyespor · M

8.0

Match Events

34'

37'

46'

46'

46'

E. Lenjani← O. Atasayar

51'

J. Sekidika

57'

A. Bettaieb← J. Sekidika

61'

E. Bardhi← E. Siopis

65'

U. Nayir↳ A. Mršić

76'

Oğuz Gürbulak

76'

E. Elmalı← D. Haspolat

76'

M. Lahtimi← S. Denswil

79'

S. Göksu← O. Gürbulak

83'

Y. Yazıcı

84'

I. Sackey← V. Gheorghe

90+8'

90+8'

90+8'

90+6'

90+5'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TrabzonsporÜmraniyespor

Overview

68%Possession32%

25Total Shots12

7Corners3

12Fouls11

Shots

25Total Shots12

7On Target7

12Off Target5

6Blocked0

15Inside Box7

10Outside Box5

Passing

68%Possession32%

636Total Passes309

550Accurate Passes205

86%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

5Saves6

Discipline

12Fouls11

2Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

Match Recap: Trabzonspor vs Ümraniyespor

Ümraniyespor beat Trabzonspor 2-1 in League #203 on March 4, 2023.

Goals: J. Sekidika (51'), U. Nayir (65'), Y. Yazıcı (83').

Trabzonspor controlled possession (68%) and registered 25 shots to 12.

The match was played at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi in Trabzon.

Trabzonspor vs Ümraniyespor — League #203 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Trabzonspor vs Ümraniyespor