Trabzonspor 2–2 Kayserispor: Result & Stats

Trabzonspor

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Kayserispor

9/19/2024

League #203 · Round 3Papara Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Trabzonspor67%

×Draw18%

Kayserispor14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TrabzonsporExpected goals in this matchKayserispor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

0.98

Trabzonspor

2.33

Kayserispor

0.98

Trabzonspor creates 138% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 12 away

2.24

creates per match

0.92

1.04

allows per match

2.42

creates per match

Trabzonspor

2.24

Kayserispor

0.92

allows per match

Trabzonspor

1.04

Kayserispor

2.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trabzonspor+0.00on par

Kayserispor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trabzonspor ↓

Kayserispor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Trabzonspor or draw

86%

Trabzonspor or Kayserispor

82%

Draw or Kayserispor

33%

Winning margin

Trabzonspor wins by 2+

44%

Kayserispor wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Trabzonspor 1+ goals

90%

Trabzonspor 2+ goals

67%

Trabzonspor 3+ goals

41%

Kayserispor 1+ goals

62%

Kayserispor 2+ goals

26%

Kayserispor 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Trabzonspor (draw refunded)

82%

Kayserispor (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trabzonspor at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.04 · 25 matches

Kayserispor away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trabzonspor attack 2.24 + Kayserispor defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.33

Kayserispor attack 0.92 + Trabzonspor defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Trabzonspor scores more

67%

level

18%

Kayserispor scores more

14%

Trabzonspor at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Trabzonspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff