Trabzonspor 3–0 İstanbulspor: Result & Stats

Trabzonspor

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

İstanbulspor

5/12/2024

League #203 · Round 36Papara Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Trabzonspor75%

×Draw15%

İstanbulspor9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TrabzonsporExpected goals in this matchİstanbulspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.52

0.75

Trabzonspor

2.52

İstanbulspor

0.75

Trabzonspor creates 236% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 4 away

1.79

creates per match

0.50

1.00

allows per match

3.25

creates per match

Trabzonspor

1.79

İstanbulspor

0.50

allows per match

Trabzonspor

1.00

İstanbulspor

3.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trabzonspor+0.00on par

İstanbulspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trabzonspor ↓

İstanbulspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Trabzonspor or draw

91%

Trabzonspor or İstanbulspor

85%

Draw or İstanbulspor

25%

Winning margin

Trabzonspor wins by 2+

53%

İstanbulspor wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Trabzonspor 1+ goals

92%

Trabzonspor 2+ goals

71%

Trabzonspor 3+ goals

45%

İstanbulspor 1+ goals

53%

İstanbulspor 2+ goals

17%

İstanbulspor 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Trabzonspor (draw refunded)

89%

İstanbulspor (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trabzonspor at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

İstanbulspor away — creates 0.50, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trabzonspor attack 1.79 + İstanbulspor defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.52

İstanbulspor attack 0.50 + Trabzonspor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Trabzonspor scores more

75%

level

15%

İstanbulspor scores more

9%

Trabzonspor at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Trabzonspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff