Trabzonspor 1–1 Göztepe: Result & Stats

Trabzonspor

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Göztepe

O. Zubkov 32'

Rômulo 31' (pen)

3/29/2025

League #203 · Round 29Papara Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Trabzonspor41%

×Draw25%

Göztepe34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TrabzonsporExpected goals in this matchGöztepe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.32

Trabzonspor

1.49

Göztepe

1.32

Trabzonspor creates 13% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 11 away

1.53

creates per match

1.40

1.25

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Trabzonspor

1.53

Göztepe

1.40

allows per match

Trabzonspor

1.25

Göztepe

1.45

+0.53scores more than expected

finishing

-0.49scores less than expected

finishing

Trabzonspor+0.53scores more

Göztepe-0.49scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trabzonspor ↓

Göztepe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Trabzonspor or draw

66%

Trabzonspor or Göztepe

75%

Draw or Göztepe

59%

Winning margin

Trabzonspor wins by 2+

20%

Göztepe wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Trabzonspor 1+ goals

77%

Trabzonspor 2+ goals

44%

Trabzonspor 3+ goals

19%

Göztepe 1+ goals

73%

Göztepe 2+ goals

38%

Göztepe 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Trabzonspor (draw refunded)

55%

Göztepe (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trabzonspor at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

Göztepe away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trabzonspor attack 1.53 + Göztepe defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.49

Göztepe attack 1.40 + Trabzonspor defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Trabzonspor scores more

41%

level

25%

Göztepe scores more

34%

Trabzonspor at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Trabzonspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

O. Zubkov

Trabzonspor · M

7.9

Match Events

26'

D. Tijanič← A. Ildız

30'

Ogün BayrakPenalty confirmed

31'

RômuloPenalty

32'

O. Zubkov↳ M. Eskihellaç

35'

Juan

65'

Okay Yokuşlu

66'

Emersonn← Juan

67'

67'

75'

76'

76'

85'

T. Altıkardeş← N. Sangaré

85'

F. Bayır← A. Dennis

85'

Victor Hugo← D. Erdoğan

90+2'

T. Jabol-Folcarelli← S. Saatçı

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TrabzonsporGöztepe

Overview

67%Possession33%

12Total Shots6

0.89Expected Goals (xG)1.34

7Corners1

7Fouls17

Shots

12Total Shots6

2On Target3

6Off Target2

4Blocked1

9Inside Box4

3Outside Box2

Passing

67%Possession33%

537Total Passes259

433Accurate Passes189

81%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

-0.06Goals Prevented-0.06

Discipline

7Fouls17

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides4