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Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Trabzonspor
Trabzonsporadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Fenerbahçe
Fenerbahçe
3/3/2020Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · Semi-finalsMedical Park Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Trabzonspor43%
×Draw25%
Fenerbahçe32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trabzonspor
1.52
Fenerbahçe
1.29

Trabzonspor creates 18% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 14 away

creates per match

Trabzonspor
2.33
Fenerbahçe
2.00

allows per match

Trabzonspor
0.58
Fenerbahçe
0.71

finishing

Trabzonspor+0.00on par
Fenerbahçe+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trabzonspor ↓

Fenerbahçe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Trabzonspor or draw
68%
Trabzonspor or Fenerbahçe
75%
Draw or Fenerbahçe
57%

Winning margin

Trabzonspor wins by 2+
21%
Fenerbahçe wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Trabzonspor 1+ goals
78%
Trabzonspor 2+ goals
45%
Trabzonspor 3+ goals
20%
Fenerbahçe 1+ goals
72%
Fenerbahçe 2+ goals
37%
Fenerbahçe 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Trabzonspor (draw refunded)
57%
Fenerbahçe (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trabzonspor at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.58 · 24 matches

Fenerbahçe away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trabzonspor attack 2.33 + Fenerbahçe defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.52

Fenerbahçe attack 2.00 + Trabzonspor defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Trabzonspor scores more
43%
level
25%
Fenerbahçe scores more
32%

Trabzonspor at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Trabzonspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe

Trabzonspor beat Fenerbahçe 2-1 in Türkiye Kupası on March 3, 2020.

The match was played at Medical Park Stadyumu in Trabzon.