Trabzonspor 5–1 Fatih Karagümrük: Result & Stats

Trabzonspor

FT

5 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Fatih Karagümrük

U. Bozok 90+3'

N. Pépé 76'

Trézéguet 70'

D. Biraschi 64' (OG), 32' (OG)

Marcão 14'

3/9/2024

League #203 · Round 29Papara Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Trabzonspor62%

×Draw20%

Fatih Karagümrük18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TrabzonsporExpected goals in this matchFatih Karagümrük

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.06

Trabzonspor

2.17

Fatih Karagümrük

1.06

Trabzonspor creates 105% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 11 away

2.06

creates per match

1.00

1.11

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Trabzonspor

2.06

Fatih Karagümrük

1.00

allows per match

Trabzonspor

1.11

Fatih Karagümrük

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trabzonspor+0.00on par

Fatih Karagümrük+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trabzonspor ↓

Fatih Karagümrük →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Trabzonspor or draw

82%

Trabzonspor or Fatih Karagümrük

80%

Draw or Fatih Karagümrük

38%

Winning margin

Trabzonspor wins by 2+

39%

Fatih Karagümrük wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Trabzonspor 1+ goals

89%

Trabzonspor 2+ goals

64%

Trabzonspor 3+ goals

36%

Fatih Karagümrük 1+ goals

65%

Fatih Karagümrük 2+ goals

29%

Fatih Karagümrük 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Trabzonspor (draw refunded)

78%

Fatih Karagümrük (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trabzonspor at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

Fatih Karagümrük away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trabzonspor attack 2.06 + Fatih Karagümrük defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.17

Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.00 + Trabzonspor defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Trabzonspor scores more

62%

level

20%

Fatih Karagümrük scores more

18%

Trabzonspor at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Trabzonspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Trézéguet

Trabzonspor · M

9.9

Match Events

12'

Koray Günter

14'

Marcão↳ C. Keles

31'

Münir Levent Mercan

32'

D. BiraschiOwn goal

46'

E. Tintiş← L. Mercan

59'

F. Paoletti← S. Féghouli

60'

K. Lasagna← Marcão

62'

Flavio Paoletti

64'

D. BiraschiOwn goal

65'

70'

75'

76'

79'

Joaquín Fernández← E. Bardhi

80'

U. Bozok← N. Pépé

81'

A. Bertolacci← M. Rohdén

86'

T. Fountas← E. Višća

86'

M. Aydın← T. Meunier

90+3'

U. Bozok↳ Trézéguet

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TrabzonsporFatih

Overview

67%Possession33%

26Total Shots6

3.07Expected Goals (xG)0.28

8Corners2

10Fouls13

Shots

26Total Shots6

11On Target2

9Off Target3

6Blocked1

19Inside Box3

7Outside Box3

Passing

67%Possession33%

601Total Passes303

522Accurate Passes243

87%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

10Fouls13

0Yellow Cards3