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Trabzonspor vs Erzurumspor FK — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Trabzonspor
Trabzonsporadvanced
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Erzurumspor FK
Erzurumspor FK
2/4/2020Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · Quarter-finalsMedical Park Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Trabzonspor79%
×Draw13%
Erzurumspor FK8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trabzonspor
2.88
Erzurumspor FK
0.79

Trabzonspor creates 265% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 7 away

creates per match

Trabzonspor
2.33
Erzurumspor FK
1.00

allows per match

Trabzonspor
0.58
Erzurumspor FK
3.43

finishing

Trabzonspor+0.00on par
Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trabzonspor ↓

Erzurumspor FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Trabzonspor or draw
92%
Trabzonspor or Erzurumspor FK
87%
Draw or Erzurumspor FK
21%

Winning margin

Trabzonspor wins by 2+
59%
Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Trabzonspor 1+ goals
94%
Trabzonspor 2+ goals
78%
Trabzonspor 3+ goals
54%
Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals
55%
Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals
19%
Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Trabzonspor (draw refunded)
91%
Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trabzonspor at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.58 · 24 matches

Erzurumspor FK away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trabzonspor attack 2.33 + Erzurumspor FK defence 3.43 → ÷2 → 2.88

Erzurumspor FK attack 1.00 + Trabzonspor defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Trabzonspor scores more
79%
level
13%
Erzurumspor FK scores more
8%

Trabzonspor at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Trabzonspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Trabzonspor 5–0 Erzurumspor FK

Trabzonspor beat Erzurumspor FK 5-0 in Türkiye Kupası on February 4, 2020.

The match was played at Medical Park Stadyumu in Trabzon.