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Trabzonspor vs Balıkesirspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Trabzonspor
Trabzonspor
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Balıkesirspor
Balıkesirspor
1/16/2019Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 8th FinalsMedical Park Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Trabzonspor62%
×Draw22%
Balıkesirspor16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trabzonspor
1.83
Balıkesirspor
0.79

Trabzonspor creates 132% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 3 away

creates per match

Trabzonspor
2.33
Balıkesirspor
1.00

allows per match

Trabzonspor
0.58
Balıkesirspor
1.33

finishing

Trabzonspor+0.00on par
Balıkesirspor+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trabzonspor ↓

Balıkesirspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Trabzonspor or draw
84%
Trabzonspor or Balıkesirspor
78%
Draw or Balıkesirspor
38%

Winning margin

Trabzonspor wins by 2+
36%
Balıkesirspor wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Trabzonspor 1+ goals
84%
Trabzonspor 2+ goals
54%
Trabzonspor 3+ goals
28%
Balıkesirspor 1+ goals
55%
Balıkesirspor 2+ goals
19%
Balıkesirspor 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Trabzonspor (draw refunded)
80%
Balıkesirspor (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trabzonspor at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.58 · 24 matches

Balıkesirspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trabzonspor attack 2.33 + Balıkesirspor defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.83

Balıkesirspor attack 1.00 + Trabzonspor defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Trabzonspor scores more
62%
level
22%
Balıkesirspor scores more
16%

Trabzonspor at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Trabzonspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Trabzonspor 2–1 Balıkesirspor

Trabzonspor beat Balıkesirspor 2-1 in Türkiye Kupası on January 16, 2019.

The match was played at Medical Park Stadyumu in Trabzon.