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Trabzonspor vs Altay — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Trabzonspor
Trabzonspor
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Altay
Altay
12/19/2019Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 5th RoundMedical Park Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Trabzonspor66%
×Draw19%
Altay15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trabzonspor
2.27
Altay
0.99

Trabzonspor creates 129% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 5 away

creates per match

Trabzonspor
2.33
Altay
1.40

allows per match

Trabzonspor
0.58
Altay
2.20

finishing

Trabzonspor+0.00on par
Altay+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trabzonspor ↓

Altay →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Trabzonspor or draw
85%
Trabzonspor or Altay
81%
Draw or Altay
34%

Winning margin

Trabzonspor wins by 2+
43%
Altay wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Trabzonspor 1+ goals
90%
Trabzonspor 2+ goals
66%
Trabzonspor 3+ goals
39%
Altay 1+ goals
63%
Altay 2+ goals
26%
Altay 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Trabzonspor (draw refunded)
81%
Altay (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trabzonspor at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.58 · 24 matches

Altay away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trabzonspor attack 2.33 + Altay defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.27

Altay attack 1.40 + Trabzonspor defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Trabzonspor scores more
66%
level
19%
Altay scores more
15%

Trabzonspor at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Trabzonspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trabzonspor vs Altay

Trabzonspor beat Altay 4-1 in Türkiye Kupası on December 19, 2019.

The match was played at Medical Park Stadyumu in Trabzon.