Trabzonspor 2–2 Adana Demirspor: Result & Stats

Trabzonspor

Pens

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Adana Demirspor

12/16/2020

Türkiye Kupası · 5th RoundMedical Park Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Trabzonspor77%

×Draw16%

Adana Demirspor6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TrabzonsporExpected goals in this matchAdana Demirspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

0.45

Trabzonspor

2.17

Adana Demirspor

0.45

Trabzonspor creates 382% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 3 away

2.33

creates per match

0.33

0.58

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Trabzonspor

2.33

Adana Demirspor

0.33

allows per match

Trabzonspor

0.58

Adana Demirspor

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trabzonspor+0.00on par

Adana Demirspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trabzonspor ↓

Adana Demirspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–17%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–017%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–16%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (17%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Trabzonspor or draw

94%

Trabzonspor or Adana Demirspor

84%

Draw or Adana Demirspor

23%

Winning margin

Trabzonspor wins by 2+

52%

Adana Demirspor wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Trabzonspor 1+ goals

89%

Trabzonspor 2+ goals

64%

Trabzonspor 3+ goals

36%

Adana Demirspor 1+ goals

36%

Adana Demirspor 2+ goals

8%

Adana Demirspor 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Trabzonspor (draw refunded)

92%

Adana Demirspor (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trabzonspor at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.58 · 24 matches

Adana Demirspor away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trabzonspor attack 2.33 + Adana Demirspor defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Adana Demirspor attack 0.33 + Trabzonspor defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Trabzonspor scores more

77%

level

16%

Adana Demirspor scores more

6%

Trabzonspor at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Trabzonspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff