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Trønder-Lyn vs Tiller — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Trønder-Lyn
Trønder-Lyn
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Tiller
Tiller
10/22/20233. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 25Sørøya kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Trønder-Lyn33%
×Draw20%
Tiller47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trønder-Lyn
1.92
Tiller
2.31

Tiller creates 20% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 32 away

creates per match

Trønder-Lyn
1.62
Tiller
2.00

allows per match

Trønder-Lyn
2.62
Tiller
2.22

finishing

Trønder-Lyn+0.00on par
Tiller+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trønder-Lyn ↓

Tiller →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Trønder-Lyn or draw
53%
Trønder-Lyn or Tiller
80%
Draw or Tiller
67%

Winning margin

Trønder-Lyn wins by 2+
17%
Tiller wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Trønder-Lyn 1+ goals
85%
Trønder-Lyn 2+ goals
57%
Trønder-Lyn 3+ goals
30%
Tiller 1+ goals
90%
Tiller 2+ goals
67%
Tiller 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Trønder-Lyn (draw refunded)
41%
Tiller (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trønder-Lyn at home — creates 1.62, concedes 2.62 · 13 matches

Tiller away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.22 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trønder-Lyn attack 1.62 + Tiller defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.92

Tiller attack 2.00 + Trønder-Lyn defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Trønder-Lyn scores more
33%
level
20%
Tiller scores more
47%

Tiller at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tiller will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trønder-Lyn vs Tiller

Trønder-Lyn beat Tiller 3-2 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on October 22, 2023.

The match was played at Sørøya kunstgress in Kvål.