Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Trønder-Lyn vs Rosenborg II — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Trønder-Lyn
Trønder-Lyn
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Rosenborg II
Rosenborg II
9/25/20233. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 21Sørøya kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Trønder-Lyn40%
×Draw20%
Rosenborg II39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trønder-Lyn
2.10
Rosenborg II
2.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Trønder-Lyn
1.62
Rosenborg II
1.54

allows per match

Trønder-Lyn
2.62
Rosenborg II
2.58

finishing

Trønder-Lyn+0.00on par
Rosenborg II+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trønder-Lyn ↓

Rosenborg II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Trønder-Lyn or draw
61%
Trønder-Lyn or Rosenborg II
80%
Draw or Rosenborg II
60%

Winning margin

Trønder-Lyn wins by 2+
22%
Rosenborg II wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Trønder-Lyn 1+ goals
88%
Trønder-Lyn 2+ goals
62%
Trønder-Lyn 3+ goals
35%
Rosenborg II 1+ goals
87%
Rosenborg II 2+ goals
61%
Rosenborg II 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Trønder-Lyn (draw refunded)
50%
Rosenborg II (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trønder-Lyn at home — creates 1.62, concedes 2.62 · 13 matches

Rosenborg II away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.58 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trønder-Lyn attack 1.62 + Rosenborg II defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.10

Rosenborg II attack 1.54 + Trønder-Lyn defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Trønder-Lyn scores more
40%
level
20%
Rosenborg II scores more
39%

Trønder-Lyn at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Trønder-Lyn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trønder-Lyn vs Rosenborg II

Rosenborg II beat Trønder-Lyn 3-1 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on September 25, 2023.

The match was played at Sørøya kunstgress in Kvål.