Trønder-Lyn 3–2 Rana: Result & Stats

Trønder-Lyn

FT

3 – 2

Rana

5/6/2023

3. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 5Sørøya kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Trønder-Lyn29%

×Draw19%

Rana52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trønder-LynExpected goals in this matchRana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

2.50

Trønder-Lyn

1.85

Rana

2.50

Rana creates 35% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

1.62

creates per match

2.38

2.62

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Trønder-Lyn

1.62

Rana

2.38

allows per match

Trønder-Lyn

2.62

Rana

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trønder-Lyn+0.00on par

Rana+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trønder-Lyn ↓

Rana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Trønder-Lyn or draw

48%

Trønder-Lyn or Rana

81%

Draw or Rana

71%

Winning margin

Trønder-Lyn wins by 2+

14%

Rana wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Trønder-Lyn 1+ goals

84%

Trønder-Lyn 2+ goals

55%

Trønder-Lyn 3+ goals

28%

Rana 1+ goals

92%

Rana 2+ goals

71%

Rana 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Trønder-Lyn (draw refunded)

36%

Rana (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trønder-Lyn at home — creates 1.62, concedes 2.62 · 13 matches

Rana away — creates 2.38, concedes 2.08 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trønder-Lyn attack 1.62 + Rana defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.85

Rana attack 2.38 + Trønder-Lyn defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Trønder-Lyn scores more

29%

level

19%

Rana scores more

52%

Rana at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Rana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff