Trønder-Lyn 0–1 Byåsen: Result & Stats

Trønder-Lyn

FT

0 – 1

Byåsen

4/10/2023

3. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 1Sørøya kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Trønder-Lyn19%

×Draw17%

Byåsen64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trønder-LynExpected goals in this matchByåsen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

2.78

Trønder-Lyn

1.48

Byåsen

2.78

Byåsen creates 88% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 32 away

1.62

creates per match

2.94

2.62

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Trønder-Lyn

1.62

Byåsen

2.94

allows per match

Trønder-Lyn

2.62

Byåsen

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trønder-Lyn+0.00on par

Byåsen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trønder-Lyn ↓

Byåsen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–26%

0–35%

0–44%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Trønder-Lyn or draw

36%

Trønder-Lyn or Byåsen

83%

Draw or Byåsen

81%

Winning margin

Trønder-Lyn wins by 2+

8%

Byåsen wins by 2+

44%

Team goals

Trønder-Lyn 1+ goals

77%

Trønder-Lyn 2+ goals

43%

Trønder-Lyn 3+ goals

19%

Byåsen 1+ goals

94%

Byåsen 2+ goals

76%

Byåsen 3+ goals

51%

Draw no bet

Trønder-Lyn (draw refunded)

23%

Byåsen (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trønder-Lyn at home — creates 1.62, concedes 2.62 · 13 matches

Byåsen away — creates 2.94, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trønder-Lyn attack 1.62 + Byåsen defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.48

Byåsen attack 2.94 + Trønder-Lyn defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Trønder-Lyn scores more

19%

level

17%

Byåsen scores more

64%

Byåsen at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Byåsen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff