Træff 2–2 Vard: Result & Stats

Træff

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Vard

B. Eltervåg 82' (pen)

M. Tornes 13'

A. Endresen 56'

R. Kling 23'

5/13/2023

2. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 6Reknesbanen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Træff46%

×Draw23%

Vard31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TræffExpected goals in this matchVard

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.43

Træff

1.80

Vard

1.43

Træff creates 26% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 52 away

1.58

creates per match

1.10

1.76

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Træff

1.58

Vard

1.10

allows per match

Træff

1.76

Vard

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Træff+0.00on par

Vard+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Træff ↓

Vard →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Træff or draw

69%

Træff or Vard

77%

Draw or Vard

54%

Winning margin

Træff wins by 2+

25%

Vard wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Træff 1+ goals

83%

Træff 2+ goals

54%

Træff 3+ goals

27%

Vard 1+ goals

76%

Vard 2+ goals

42%

Vard 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Træff (draw refunded)

60%

Vard (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Træff at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

Vard away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.02 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Træff attack 1.58 + Vard defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.80

Vard attack 1.10 + Træff defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Træff scores more

46%

level

23%

Vard scores more

31%

Træff at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Træff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

M. Tornes

23'

R. Kling

34'

I. Flones

56'

63'

65'

69'

75'

E. Ndayisenga← A. Endresen

78'

M. Woldsund← M. Tornes

82'

B. EltervågPenalty

85'

S. Jensen

Træff

Vard

29

4

3

7

14

11

30

10

⚽

Kling

6

Harvey

8

▼

Kvarven

9

⚽

▼

Endresen

1

Thorvik

20

⚽

Eltervåg

5

▼

28

14

6

10

7

13

⚽

▼

Tornes

27

Haga

29

Bøe

Manager: Ø. Høgmo

63'▲M. Lewis←▼I. Flønes

78'▲M. Woldsund←▼M. Tornes

Træff substitutes

17Lewis11Woldsund2Heggstad3Bellingmo4Kvendseth8Selmer9Okanović16Hermansen23Bøe

Manager: K. Fosen

65'▲A. Dialo←▼J. Kvarven

75'▲E. Ndayisenga←▼A. Endresen

Vard substitutes

19Dialo16Ndayisenga2Nygaard15Osdautaj24Berge5Lorentz

Træff 2 – 2 Vard

Træff and Vard drew 2-2 in 2. Division - Group 1 on May 13, 2023.

Goals: M. Tornes (13'), R. Kling (23'), A. Endresen (56'), B. Eltervåg (82' pen).

The match was played at Reknesbanen in Molde.

Træff vs Vard — 2. Division - Group 1 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Træff 2 – 2 Vard