Træff 3–2 Sandnes ULF: Result & Stats

Træff

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Sandnes ULF

J. Myklebust 84'

N. Ohr 48'

I. Flones 22'

A. Nyhagen 54'

Unknown 52' (OG)

9/7/2025

2. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 19Reknesbanen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Træff31%

×Draw21%

Sandnes ULF48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TræffExpected goals in this matchSandnes ULF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

2.11

Træff

1.68

Sandnes ULF

2.11

Sandnes ULF creates 26% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 13 away

1.58

creates per match

2.46

1.76

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Træff

1.58

Sandnes ULF

2.46

allows per match

Træff

1.76

Sandnes ULF

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Træff+0.00on par

Sandnes ULF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Træff ↓

Sandnes ULF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Træff or draw

52%

Træff or Sandnes ULF

79%

Draw or Sandnes ULF

69%

Winning margin

Træff wins by 2+

15%

Sandnes ULF wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Træff 1+ goals

81%

Træff 2+ goals

50%

Træff 3+ goals

24%

Sandnes ULF 1+ goals

88%

Sandnes ULF 2+ goals

62%

Sandnes ULF 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Træff (draw refunded)

39%

Sandnes ULF (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Træff at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

Sandnes ULF away — creates 2.46, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Træff attack 1.58 + Sandnes ULF defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.68

Sandnes ULF attack 2.46 + Træff defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Træff scores more

31%

level

21%

Sandnes ULF scores more

48%

Sandnes ULF at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sandnes ULF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

I. Flones

48'

N. Ohr

52'

Own goal

54'

A. Nyhagen

59'

L. Hovland← R. Toven

59'

A. Obiech← N. Ohr

63'

K. Egell-Johnsen← A. Bruseth

63'

H. Jensen← J. Aune

78'

T. Haland← K. Pereira

78'

A. Berntsen← J. Tromsdal

84'

K. Selmer← M. Rotvold-Leenaars

84'

J. Myklebust

88'

M. Lewis← H. Boe

88'

J. Kvernstuen← E. Osenbroch

Træff

Sandnes

1

Falch

3

Berger

4

Gayi

19

▼

Pereira

6

▼

Tromsdal

8

Saugestad

10

▼

Osenbroch

17

⚽

Nyhagen

18

▼

Bruseth

9

Sundgot

20

▼

Aune

1

Lervik

5

⚽

Flones

23

▼

Boe

28

▼

Rotvold-L

7

Myklebust

11

Tosse

27

⚽

Myklebust

29

Finnoy

8

Gussias

10

▼

Toven

24

⚽

▼

Ohr

Manager: M. Oltedal

59'▲L. Hovland←▼R. Toven

59'▲A. Obiech←▼N. Ohr

84'▲K. Selmer←▼M. Rotvold-Leenaars

88'▲M. Lewis←▼H. Boe

Træff substitutes

12Jensen9Okanovic17Lewis18Selmer19Hovland21Amdam88Obiech

Manager: A. Cleveland

63'▲K. Egell-Johnsen←▼A. Bruseth

63'▲H. Jensen←▼J. Aune

78'▲T. Haland←▼K. Pereira

78'▲A. Berntsen←▼J. Tromsdal

88'▲J. Kvernstuen←▼E. Osenbroch

Sandnes ULF substitutes

13Sola2Egell-Johnsen11Kvernstuen15Jensen21Haland23Berland25Berntsen