Træff 1–1 Notodden: Result & Stats

Træff

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Notodden

D. Okanovic 21'

D. Sissoko 36'

6/15/2025

2. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 10Reknesbanen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Træff43%

×Draw23%

Notodden34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TræffExpected goals in this matchNotodden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.52

Træff

1.72

Notodden

1.52

Træff creates 13% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 58 away

1.58

creates per match

1.28

1.76

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Træff

1.58

Notodden

1.28

allows per match

Træff

1.76

Notodden

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Træff+0.00on par

Notodden+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Træff ↓

Notodden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Træff or draw

66%

Træff or Notodden

77%

Draw or Notodden

57%

Winning margin

Træff wins by 2+

22%

Notodden wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Træff 1+ goals

82%

Træff 2+ goals

51%

Træff 3+ goals

25%

Notodden 1+ goals

78%

Notodden 2+ goals

45%

Notodden 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Træff (draw refunded)

55%

Notodden (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Træff at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

Notodden away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.86 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Træff attack 1.58 + Notodden defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.72

Notodden attack 1.28 + Træff defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Træff scores more

43%

level

23%

Notodden scores more

34%

Træff at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Træff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

21'

36'

45'

62'

62'

D. Gravdehaug← D. Okanovic

62'

J. Holthe← N. Jacobsen

62'

S. Svarstad← J. Nesland

70'

78'

79'

88'

89'

I. Flones← A. Myklebust

89'

90+1'

90+2'

90+4'

Træff

Notodden

1

6

8

3

2

▼

Jacobsen

18

Kyvik

27

Hagen

21

▼

Nesland

9

⚽

Sissoko

16

▼

Ryste

10

▼

1

6

27

2

21

3

24

7

▼

Myklebust

8

▼

Gussias

9

⚽

▼

Okanovic

17

▼

Lewis

Manager: M. Oltedal

62'▲D. Gravdehaug←▼D. Okanovic

78'▲S. Finnoy←▼M. Lewis

89'▲I. Flones←▼A. Myklebust

89'▲H. Boe←▼S. Gussias

Træff substitutes

12Sjomaeling22Beinset5Flones14Roberg16Gravdehaug23Boe29Finnoy

Manager: S. Hansen

62'▲J. Holthe←▼N. Jacobsen

62'▲S. Svarstad←▼J. Nesland

70'▲J. Ulsnes←▼K. Singh

88'▲T. Telle←▼A. Ryste

Notodden substitutes

31Straand7Ulsnes17Holthe19Svarstad24Telle

2. Division - Group 1: Træff 1–1 Notodden

Træff and Notodden drew 1-1 in 2. Division - Group 1 on June 15, 2025.

Goals: D. Okanovic (21'), D. Sissoko (36').

The match was played at Reknesbanen in Molde.

Træff vs Notodden — 2. Division - Group 1 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

2. Division - Group 1: Træff 1–1 Notodden