Træff 4–1 Hødd II: Result & Stats

Træff

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Hødd II

N. Eide Ohr 84'

I. Flones 72'

M. Kjorsvik 45+4'

A. Amdam 45+2'

A. Brandal 88'

8/26/2024

3. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 18Reknesbanen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Træff81%

×Draw12%

Hødd II8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TræffExpected goals in this matchHødd II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.20

0.92

Træff

3.20

Hødd II

0.92

Træff creates 248% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

3.32

creates per match

1.00

0.84

allows per match

3.08

creates per match

Træff

3.32

Hødd II

1.00

allows per match

Træff

0.84

Hødd II

3.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Træff+0.00on par

Hødd II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Træff ↓

Hødd II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–15%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–19%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Træff or draw

92%

Træff or Hødd II

88%

Draw or Hødd II

19%

Winning margin

Træff wins by 2+

62%

Hødd II wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Træff 1+ goals

96%

Træff 2+ goals

82%

Træff 3+ goals

60%

Hødd II 1+ goals

60%

Hødd II 2+ goals

23%

Hødd II 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Træff (draw refunded)

91%

Hødd II (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Træff at home — creates 3.32, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

Hødd II away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Træff attack 3.32 + Hødd II defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 3.20

Hødd II attack 1.00 + Træff defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Træff scores more

81%

level

12%

Hødd II scores more

8%

Træff at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Træff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+2'

A. Amdam

45+4'

M. Kjorsvik

72'

I. Flones

84'

N. Eide Ohr

88'

A. Brandal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff