Træff 1–3 Aalesund II: Result & Stats

Træff

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Aalesund II

11/4/2023

2. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 25Reknesbanen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Træff48%

×Draw23%

Aalesund II29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TræffExpected goals in this matchAalesund II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.30

Træff

1.75

Aalesund II

1.30

Træff creates 35% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 13 away

1.58

creates per match

0.85

1.76

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Træff

1.58

Aalesund II

0.85

allows per match

Træff

1.76

Aalesund II

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Træff+0.00on par

Aalesund II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Træff ↓

Aalesund II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Træff or draw

71%

Træff or Aalesund II

77%

Draw or Aalesund II

52%

Winning margin

Træff wins by 2+

26%

Aalesund II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Træff 1+ goals

83%

Træff 2+ goals

52%

Træff 3+ goals

25%

Aalesund II 1+ goals

73%

Aalesund II 2+ goals

37%

Aalesund II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Træff (draw refunded)

63%

Aalesund II (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Træff at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

Aalesund II away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Træff attack 1.58 + Aalesund II defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.75

Aalesund II attack 0.85 + Træff defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Træff scores more

48%

level

23%

Aalesund II scores more

29%

Træff at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Træff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff