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TPV vs Tampere United — Suomen Cup 2018

TPV
TPV
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Tampere United
Tampere Unitedadvanced
4/15/2026Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Round of 128Kauppi 3 - Artificial grass

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

TPV4%
×Draw9%
Tampere United87%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TPV
0.58
Tampere United
3.25

Tampere United creates 460% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

TPV
1.17
Tampere United
4.33

allows per match

TPV
2.17
Tampere United
0.00

finishing

TPV+0.00on par
Tampere United+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TPV ↓

Tampere United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–17%
0–212%
0–313%
0–411%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–22%
2–32%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (13%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

TPV or draw
13%
TPV or Tampere United
91%
Draw or Tampere United
96%

Winning margin

TPV wins by 2+
1%
Tampere United wins by 2+
70%

Team goals

TPV 1+ goals
44%
TPV 2+ goals
12%
TPV 3+ goals
2%
Tampere United 1+ goals
96%
Tampere United 2+ goals
83%
Tampere United 3+ goals
61%

Draw no bet

TPV (draw refunded)
4%
Tampere United (draw refunded)
96%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TPV at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Tampere United away — creates 4.33, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TPV attack 1.17 + Tampere United defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.58

Tampere United attack 4.33 + TPV defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 3.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

TPV scores more
4%
level
9%
Tampere United scores more
87%

Tampere United at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Tampere United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TPV vs Tampere United

Tampere United beat TPV 2-0 in Suomen Cup on April 15, 2026.

The match was played at Kauppi 3 - Artificial grass in Tampere.