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TPV vs PK-37 — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2018

TPV
TPV
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
PK-37
PK-37
5/10/2018Kakkonen - Lohko CKakkonen - Lohko C · Round 3Kauppi 2 (Tampere)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

TPV75%
×Draw16%
PK-3710%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TPV
2.50
PK-37
0.77

TPV creates 225% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 22 away

creates per match

TPV
2.64
PK-37
0.82

allows per match

TPV
0.73
PK-37
2.36

finishing

TPV+0.00on par
PK-37+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TPV ↓

PK-37 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

TPV or draw
90%
TPV or PK-37
84%
Draw or PK-37
25%

Winning margin

TPV wins by 2+
52%
PK-37 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

TPV 1+ goals
92%
TPV 2+ goals
71%
TPV 3+ goals
45%
PK-37 1+ goals
54%
PK-37 2+ goals
18%
PK-37 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

TPV (draw refunded)
89%
PK-37 (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TPV at home — creates 2.64, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

PK-37 away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TPV attack 2.64 + PK-37 defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.50

PK-37 attack 0.82 + TPV defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

TPV scores more
75%
level
16%
PK-37 scores more
10%

TPV at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "TPV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko C: TPV 3–0 PK-37

TPV beat PK-37 3-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko C on May 10, 2018.

The match was played at Kauppi 2 (Tampere).