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TPV vs MyPa — Ykkönen 2026

TPV
TPV
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
MyPa
MyPa
8/2/2019YkkönenYkkönen · Round 9Tammelan Stadion (Tampere)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

TPV59%
×Draw21%
MyPa20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TPV
2.10
MyPa
1.14

TPV creates 84% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 25 away

creates per match

TPV
1.24
MyPa
0.84

allows per match

TPV
1.43
MyPa
2.96

finishing

TPV+0.00on par
MyPa+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TPV ↓

MyPa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

TPV or draw
80%
TPV or MyPa
79%
Draw or MyPa
41%

Winning margin

TPV wins by 2+
36%
MyPa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

TPV 1+ goals
88%
TPV 2+ goals
62%
TPV 3+ goals
35%
MyPa 1+ goals
68%
MyPa 2+ goals
32%
MyPa 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

TPV (draw refunded)
75%
MyPa (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TPV at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.43 · 21 matches

MyPa away — creates 0.84, concedes 2.96 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TPV attack 1.24 + MyPa defence 2.96 → ÷2 → 2.10

MyPa attack 0.84 + TPV defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

TPV scores more
59%
level
21%
MyPa scores more
20%

TPV at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "TPV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

TPV 3 – 1 MyPa

TPV beat MyPa 3-1 in Ykkönen on August 2, 2019.

The match was played at Tammelan Stadion (Tampere).