Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

TPV vs Mariehamn — Suomen Cup 2018

TPV
TPV
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Mariehamn
Mariehamn
3/16/2019Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 8th FinalsPirkkahalli C

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

TPV17%
×Draw19%
Mariehamn64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TPV
1.10
Mariehamn
2.29

Mariehamn creates 108% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 25 away

creates per match

TPV
1.17
Mariehamn
2.40

allows per match

TPV
2.17
Mariehamn
1.04

finishing

TPV+0.00on par
Mariehamn+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TPV ↓

Mariehamn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

TPV or draw
36%
TPV or Mariehamn
81%
Draw or Mariehamn
83%

Winning margin

TPV wins by 2+
6%
Mariehamn wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

TPV 1+ goals
67%
TPV 2+ goals
30%
TPV 3+ goals
10%
Mariehamn 1+ goals
90%
Mariehamn 2+ goals
66%
Mariehamn 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

TPV (draw refunded)
21%
Mariehamn (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TPV at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Mariehamn away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.04 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TPV attack 1.17 + Mariehamn defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.10

Mariehamn attack 2.40 + TPV defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

TPV scores more
17%
level
19%
Mariehamn scores more
64%

Mariehamn at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Mariehamn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TPV vs Mariehamn

Mariehamn beat TPV 2-0 in Suomen Cup on March 16, 2019.

The match was played at Pirkkahalli C in Tampere.