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TPV vs KuPS — Suomen Cup 2018

TPV
TPV
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
KuPS
KuPS
5/28/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 5th RoundTammelan Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

TPV20%
×Draw22%
KuPS58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TPV
1.06
KuPS
1.95

KuPS creates 84% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 22 away

creates per match

TPV
1.17
KuPS
1.73

allows per match

TPV
2.17
KuPS
0.95

finishing

TPV+0.00on par
KuPS+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TPV ↓

KuPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

TPV or draw
42%
TPV or KuPS
78%
Draw or KuPS
80%

Winning margin

TPV wins by 2+
7%
KuPS wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

TPV 1+ goals
65%
TPV 2+ goals
29%
TPV 3+ goals
9%
KuPS 1+ goals
86%
KuPS 2+ goals
58%
KuPS 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

TPV (draw refunded)
26%
KuPS (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TPV at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

KuPS away — creates 1.73, concedes 0.95 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TPV attack 1.17 + KuPS defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.06

KuPS attack 1.73 + TPV defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

TPV scores more
20%
level
22%
KuPS scores more
58%

KuPS at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "KuPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: TPV 0–2 KuPS

KuPS beat TPV 2-0 in Suomen Cup on May 28, 2025.

The match was played at Tammelan Stadion in Tampere.