TPV 0–0 Honka Akatemia: Result & Stats

TPV

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Honka Akatemia

8/14/2021

Kakkonen - Lohko B · Group B - 8Kauppi 3 TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

TPV38%

×Draw24%

Honka Akatemia38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TPVExpected goals in this matchHonka Akatemia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.54

TPV

1.55

Honka Akatemia

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 56 away

1.80

creates per match

1.57

1.52

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

TPV

1.80

Honka Akatemia

1.57

allows per match

TPV

1.52

Honka Akatemia

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TPV+0.00on par

Honka Akatemia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TPV ↓

Honka Akatemia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

TPV or draw

62%

TPV or Honka Akatemia

76%

Draw or Honka Akatemia

62%

Winning margin

TPV wins by 2+

19%

Honka Akatemia wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

TPV 1+ goals

79%

TPV 2+ goals

46%

TPV 3+ goals

20%

Honka Akatemia 1+ goals

79%

Honka Akatemia 2+ goals

45%

Honka Akatemia 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

TPV (draw refunded)

50%

Honka Akatemia (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TPV at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.52 · 40 matches

Honka Akatemia away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.30 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TPV attack 1.80 + Honka Akatemia defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.55

Honka Akatemia attack 1.57 + TPV defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

TPV scores more

38%

level

24%

Honka Akatemia scores more

38%

TPV at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "TPV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff