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TPV vs EIF — Suomen Cup 2018

TPV
TPV
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 2
EIF
EIF
4/6/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundKauppi 3 TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

TPV18%
×Draw19%
EIF64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TPV
1.17
EIF
2.37

EIF creates 103% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 18 away

creates per match

TPV
1.17
EIF
2.56

allows per match

TPV
2.17
EIF
1.17

finishing

TPV+0.00on par
EIF+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TPV ↓

EIF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

TPV or draw
36%
TPV or EIF
81%
Draw or EIF
82%

Winning margin

TPV wins by 2+
7%
EIF wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

TPV 1+ goals
69%
TPV 2+ goals
33%
TPV 3+ goals
11%
EIF 1+ goals
91%
EIF 2+ goals
68%
EIF 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

TPV (draw refunded)
22%
EIF (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TPV at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

EIF away — creates 2.56, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TPV attack 1.17 + EIF defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.17

EIF attack 2.56 + TPV defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

TPV scores more
18%
level
19%
EIF scores more
64%

EIF at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "EIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

TPV 0 – 6 EIF

EIF beat TPV 6-0 in Suomen Cup on April 6, 2022.

The match was played at Kauppi 3 TN in Tampere.