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TPV vs AC Kajaani — Suomen Cup 2018

TPV
TPV
FT
6 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
AC Kajaani
AC Kajaani
2/2/2019Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Group Stage - 2Pirkkahalli A (Tampere)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

TPV49%
×Draw22%
AC Kajaani29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TPV
1.98
AC Kajaani
1.48

TPV creates 34% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

TPV
1.17
AC Kajaani
0.80

allows per match

TPV
2.17
AC Kajaani
2.80

finishing

TPV+0.00on par
AC Kajaani+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TPV ↓

AC Kajaani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

TPV or draw
71%
TPV or AC Kajaani
78%
Draw or AC Kajaani
51%

Winning margin

TPV wins by 2+
28%
AC Kajaani wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

TPV 1+ goals
86%
TPV 2+ goals
59%
TPV 3+ goals
31%
AC Kajaani 1+ goals
77%
AC Kajaani 2+ goals
43%
AC Kajaani 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

TPV (draw refunded)
63%
AC Kajaani (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TPV at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

AC Kajaani away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TPV attack 1.17 + AC Kajaani defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 1.98

AC Kajaani attack 0.80 + TPV defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

TPV scores more
49%
level
22%
AC Kajaani scores more
29%

TPV at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "TPV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

TPV 6 – 0 AC Kajaani

TPV beat AC Kajaani 6-0 in Suomen Cup on February 2, 2019.

The match was played at Pirkkahalli A (Tampere).