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TPV II vs Ylöjärvi United — Suomen Cup 2018

TPV II
TPV II
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ylöjärvi United
Ylöjärvi United
2/27/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundTammelan Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

TPV II35%
×Draw24%
Ylöjärvi United42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TPV II
1.50
Ylöjärvi United
1.67

Ylöjärvi United creates 11% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

TPV II
0.67
Ylöjärvi United
1.33

allows per match

TPV II
2.00
Ylöjärvi United
2.33

finishing

TPV II+0.00on par
Ylöjärvi United+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TPV II ↓

Ylöjärvi United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

TPV II or draw
58%
TPV II or Ylöjärvi United
76%
Draw or Ylöjärvi United
65%

Winning margin

TPV II wins by 2+
16%
Ylöjärvi United wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

TPV II 1+ goals
78%
TPV II 2+ goals
44%
TPV II 3+ goals
19%
Ylöjärvi United 1+ goals
81%
Ylöjärvi United 2+ goals
50%
Ylöjärvi United 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

TPV II (draw refunded)
45%
Ylöjärvi United (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TPV II at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Ylöjärvi United away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TPV II attack 0.67 + Ylöjärvi United defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Ylöjärvi United attack 1.33 + TPV II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

TPV II scores more
35%
level
24%
Ylöjärvi United scores more
42%

Ylöjärvi United at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ylöjärvi United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: TPV II 1–1 Ylöjärvi United

TPV II and Ylöjärvi United drew 1-1 in Suomen Cup on February 27, 2025.

The match was played at Tammelan Stadion in Tampere.