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TPV II vs Haka Juniorit — Suomen Cup 2018

TPV II
TPV II
FT
2 – 3
Haka Juniorit
Haka Juniorit
2/19/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundPirkkahalli C

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

TPV II6%
×Draw11%
Haka Juniorit83%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TPV II
0.77
Haka Juniorit
3.21

Haka Juniorit creates 317% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

TPV II
0.67
Haka Juniorit
4.43

allows per match

TPV II
2.00
Haka Juniorit
0.86

finishing

TPV II+0.00on par
Haka Juniorit+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TPV II ↓

Haka Juniorit →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–210%
0–311%
0–49%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–33%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (11%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

TPV II or draw
17%
TPV II or Haka Juniorit
89%
Draw or Haka Juniorit
94%

Winning margin

TPV II wins by 2+
2%
Haka Juniorit wins by 2+
65%

Team goals

TPV II 1+ goals
54%
TPV II 2+ goals
18%
TPV II 3+ goals
4%
Haka Juniorit 1+ goals
96%
Haka Juniorit 2+ goals
82%
Haka Juniorit 3+ goals
60%

Draw no bet

TPV II (draw refunded)
7%
Haka Juniorit (draw refunded)
93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TPV II at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Haka Juniorit away — creates 4.43, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TPV II attack 0.67 + Haka Juniorit defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.77

Haka Juniorit attack 4.43 + TPV II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 3.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

TPV II scores more
6%
level
11%
Haka Juniorit scores more
83%

Haka Juniorit at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Haka Juniorit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TPV II vs Haka Juniorit

Haka Juniorit beat TPV II 3-2 in Suomen Cup on February 19, 2023.

The match was played at Pirkkahalli C in Tampere.