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TPS W vs PK-35 Vantaa W — Kansallinen Liiga 2020

TPS W
TPS W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
PK-35 Vantaa W
PK-35 Vantaa W
8/1/2023Kansallinen LiigaKansallinen Liiga · Round 14Urheilupuiston Yläkenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

TPS W29%
×Draw23%
PK-35 Vantaa W48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TPS W
1.33
PK-35 Vantaa W
1.78

PK-35 Vantaa W creates 34% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 73 away

creates per match

TPS W
0.42
PK-35 Vantaa W
1.52

allows per match

TPS W
2.04
PK-35 Vantaa W
2.25

finishing

TPS W+0.00on par
PK-35 Vantaa W+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TPS W ↓

PK-35 Vantaa W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

TPS W or draw
52%
TPS W or PK-35 Vantaa W
77%
Draw or PK-35 Vantaa W
71%

Winning margin

TPS W wins by 2+
12%
PK-35 Vantaa W wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

TPS W 1+ goals
74%
TPS W 2+ goals
38%
TPS W 3+ goals
15%
PK-35 Vantaa W 1+ goals
83%
PK-35 Vantaa W 2+ goals
53%
PK-35 Vantaa W 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

TPS W (draw refunded)
38%
PK-35 Vantaa W (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TPS W at home — creates 0.42, concedes 2.04 · 26 matches

PK-35 Vantaa W away — creates 1.52, concedes 2.25 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TPS W attack 0.42 + PK-35 Vantaa W defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.33

PK-35 Vantaa W attack 1.52 + TPS W defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

TPS W scores more
29%
level
23%
PK-35 Vantaa W scores more
48%

PK-35 Vantaa W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "PK-35 Vantaa W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TPS W vs PK-35 Vantaa W

PK-35 Vantaa W beat TPS W 2-1 in Kansallinen Liiga on August 1, 2023.

The match was played at Urheilupuiston Yläkenttä in Åbo.