TPS W 0–1 PK-35 Helsinki W: Result & Stats

TPS W

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

PK-35 Helsinki W

6/17/2023

Kansallinen Liiga · Round 10Urheilupuiston Yläkenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

TPS W24%

×Draw25%

PK-35 Helsinki W51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TPS WExpected goals in this matchPK-35 Helsinki W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.60

TPS W

1.01

PK-35 Helsinki W

1.60

PK-35 Helsinki W creates 58% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 66 away

0.42

creates per match

1.17

2.04

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

TPS W

0.42

PK-35 Helsinki W

1.17

allows per match

TPS W

2.04

PK-35 Helsinki W

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TPS W+0.00on par

PK-35 Helsinki W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TPS W ↓

PK-35 Helsinki W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–112%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

TPS W or draw

49%

TPS W or PK-35 Helsinki W

75%

Draw or PK-35 Helsinki W

76%

Winning margin

TPS W wins by 2+

9%

PK-35 Helsinki W wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

TPS W 1+ goals

64%

TPS W 2+ goals

27%

TPS W 3+ goals

8%

PK-35 Helsinki W 1+ goals

80%

PK-35 Helsinki W 2+ goals

47%

PK-35 Helsinki W 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

TPS W (draw refunded)

32%

PK-35 Helsinki W (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TPS W at home — creates 0.42, concedes 2.04 · 26 matches

PK-35 Helsinki W away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.59 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TPS W attack 0.42 + PK-35 Helsinki W defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.01

PK-35 Helsinki W attack 1.17 + TPS W defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

TPS W scores more

24%

level

25%

PK-35 Helsinki W scores more

51%

PK-35 Helsinki W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "PK-35 Helsinki W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff