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TPS W vs KuPS W — Kansallinen Liiga 2020

TPS W
TPS W
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
KuPS W
KuPS W
5/6/2023Kansallinen LiigaKansallinen Liiga · Round 4Urheilupuiston Yläkenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

TPS W11%
×Draw17%
KuPS W72%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TPS W
0.77
KuPS W
2.30

KuPS W creates 199% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 72 away

creates per match

TPS W
0.42
KuPS W
2.56

allows per match

TPS W
2.04
KuPS W
1.13

finishing

TPS W+0.00on par
KuPS W+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TPS W ↓

KuPS W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–212%
0–310%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

TPS W or draw
28%
TPS W or KuPS W
83%
Draw or KuPS W
89%

Winning margin

TPS W wins by 2+
3%
KuPS W wins by 2+
48%

Team goals

TPS W 1+ goals
54%
TPS W 2+ goals
18%
TPS W 3+ goals
4%
KuPS W 1+ goals
90%
KuPS W 2+ goals
67%
KuPS W 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

TPS W (draw refunded)
13%
KuPS W (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TPS W at home — creates 0.42, concedes 2.04 · 26 matches

KuPS W away — creates 2.56, concedes 1.13 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TPS W attack 0.42 + KuPS W defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.77

KuPS W attack 2.56 + TPS W defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

TPS W scores more
11%
level
17%
KuPS W scores more
72%

KuPS W at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "KuPS W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kansallinen Liiga: TPS W 1–4 KuPS W

KuPS W beat TPS W 4-1 in Kansallinen Liiga on May 6, 2023.

The match was played at Urheilupuiston Yläkenttä in Åbo.